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شناسایی آستانه اثرگذاری ریسکهای سیستماتیک و غیر سیستماتیک بر زنجیره تأمین صنایع نفتی-پتروشیمی و شیمیایی (هیبرید مدلهای دلفی فازی نوع 3 پانلهای آستانهای) | ||
راهبرد مدیریت مالی | ||
مقاله 10، دوره 12، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 47، دی 1403، صفحه 288-259 اصل مقاله (708.15 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22051/jfm.2024.44473.2846 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی جباری1؛ اله کرم صالحی* 2؛ سعید قانع3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران | ||
2استادیار گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران | ||
3استادیار گروه مدیریت، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی آستانه اثرگذاری ریسکهای سیستماتیک و غیرسیستماتیک بر زنجیرهتأمین صنایع نفتی-پتروشیمی و شیمیایی است. بازه زمانی پژوهش 1390 تا 1400 است. پژوهش حاضر دارای دو جامعه است. جامعه اول خبرگان حوزه صنایع پتروشیمی و شیمیایی و جامعه دوم شرکتهای فعال در حوزه صنایع پتروشیمی و شیمیایی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. در این پژوهش 99 ریسک موثر بر زنجیرهتأمین صنایع پتروشیمی و شیمیایی در قالب دو دسته عوامل ریسک غیرسیستماتیک (77 شاخص) و ریسک سیستماتیک (22 شاخص) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بر اساس نظرسنجی از خبرگان با استفاده از رویکرد دلفی- فازی نوع 3، 23 شاخص ریسک غیرسیستماتیک و 13 ریسک سیستماتیک منتخب شدند. بر اساس رویکرد تحلیل مولفه اصلی از متغیرهای منتخب مولفههای ریسک سیستماتیک و غیرسیستماتیک استخراج گردیدند. نتایج مدل PSTR بین زنجیرهتأمین و ریسکهای سیستماتیک (353/0 تأثیر منفی بالای آستانه؛ 218/0 تأثیر مثبت پایینتر از آستانه) و غیرسیستماتیک (413/0 تأثیر منفی بالای آستانه؛ 237/0 تأثیر مثبت پایینتر از آستانه) رفتار آستانهای را تأیید نمود | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ریسک سیستماتیک؛ ریسک غیرسیستماتیک؛ زنجیره تأمین؛ پتروشیمی و شیمیایی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Identifying the Threshold of the Effect of Systematic and Unsystematic Risks on the Supply Chain of the Oil-Petrochemical and Chemical Industries (Hybrid Fuzzy Delphi Models Type 3 Threshold Panels) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Ali Jabbari1؛ Allah Karam Salehi2؛ Saeed Ghane3 | ||
1Department of management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran | ||
2Department of Financial Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran | ||
3Department of Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The purpose of this study is to identify the threshold of systematic and non-systematic risks to the supply chain of oil, petrochemical, and chemical industries. The period of this research is 2011-2021. This research has two communities. The first society is the experts in the petrochemical and chemical industries, and the second society is the active firms in the petrochemical and chemical industries on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this research, 99 risks affecting the supply chain of oil, petrochemical and chemical industries were investigated in the form of two categories: unsystematic risk factors (77 indicators) and systematic risk (22 indicators). Based on the expert’s opinion, using the Delphi-fuzzy type 3 approach, 23 unsystematic risk indicators and 13 systematic risk indicators were selected. Based on the principal component analysis approach, systematic and unsystematic risk components were extracted from the selected variables. The results of the PSTR model between the supply chain and systematic risk (0.353 negative impact above the threshold; 0.218 positive impact below the threshold) and unsystematic risk (0.413 negative impact above the threshold; 0.237 positive impact below the threshold) confirmed the behavior of the threshold. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Systematic Risk, Unsystematic Risk, Supply Chain, Oil, Petrochemical and Chemical | ||
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