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نقش رکود و رونق در اثرگذاری رانت منابع نفتی بر شاخص توسعه مالی در ایران: آیا کیفیت نهادها موضوعیت دارد؟ | ||
راهبرد مدیریت مالی | ||
مقاله 4، دوره 11، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 40، فروردین 1402، صفحه 77-100 اصل مقاله (647.31 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22051/jfm.2023.39105.2634 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سهیل رودری1؛ ابوالفضل شاه آبادی2؛ لیلا آرغا* 3 | ||
1گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه فردوسی، خراسان، مشهد | ||
2استاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی؛ دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران. | ||
3دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
پژوهش حاضر به بررسی نقش رکود و رونق اقتصادی و کیفیت نهادها در اثرگذاری رانت منابع طبیعی بر شاخص توسعه مالی ایران در دوره زمانی 2018- 1984 پرداخته است. جهت استخراج شاخصهای کیفیت نهادی و توسعه مالی از الگوی تحلیل مولفههای اصلی و از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری آستانهای جهت بررسی اثرگذاری رانت منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی در اقتصاد ایران در دورههای رکود و رونق و در دو حالت با لحاظ و بدون در نظر گرفتن شاخص کیفیت نهادی استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج، تاثیرگذاری رانت منابع نفتی در اقتصاد ایران بر توسعه مالی به رکود و رونق اقتصادی بستگی ندارد و عامل تعیینکننده در نفرین و موهبت بودن رانت منابع نفت در اقتصاد ایران، کیفیت نهادها است. چنانچه همزمان رانت منابع و کیفیت نهادها افزایش یابند امکان افزایش توسعه مالی در کوتاهمدت میسر میگردد اما در شرایط عدم لحاظ کیفیت نهادها در رانت منابع، در کوتاهمدت رانت منابع منجر به کاهش توسعه مالی در اقتصاد ایران میشود. بر این اساس، حتی در صورت بهبود همزمان کیفیت نهادها در کشور ایران، وفور منابع نفتی و افزایش رانت حاصل از آن، نمیتواند به عنوان یک عامل بلندمدت جهت بهبود و رشد توسعه مالی در اقتصاد ایران قلمداد شود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
رانت منابع طبیعی؛ کیفیت نهادی؛ توسعه مالی؛ ادوار تجاری؛ خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری آستانهای | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The Role of Recession and Boom in the Impact of Oil Resource Rents on Financial Development Index in Iran: Is the Institutional Quality a Matter? | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Soheil Rudari1؛ Abolfazl Shahabadi2؛ Leila Argha3 | ||
1university of mazandaran | ||
2Professor, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran | ||
3Department of Economics & management, ,Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran, | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
In the present study, the role of recession, boom and the quality of institutions in the impact of natural resource rents on Iran's financial development index in 1984-2018 has been investigated. For this purpose, first, the principal component analysis model has been used to extract the indicators of institutional quality and financial development. Then to study the effect of natural resource rents on financial development in the country during periods of recession and boom and in two modes with and without considering the institutional quality index, the threshold structural autoregressive model has been used. According to the research results, the impact of oil resources rent in the country on financial development does not depend on recession and boom, and the determining factor in the curse or blessing of oil resources rent in the country is the quality of institutions. If the rent of resources and the quality of institutions increase at the same time, it is possible to increase financial development in the short term, while in the absence of quality of institutions in the rent of resources, in the short term rent of resources leads to reduced financial development in the country. Accordingly, even if the quality of institutions in the country simultaneously improves, oil resources and the resulting increase in rents can not be considered a long-term factor for improving and growing financial development in the country. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Natural Resource Rent, Institutional Quality, Financial Development, Business Cycles, TSVAR Model | ||
سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله
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