پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 25 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 931 |
| تعداد مقالات | 7,652 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 12,492,147 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 8,884,413 |
مقاله پژوهشی: بررسی علیت ناپارامتریک و هم انباشتگی نامتقارن بین مصرف انرژی، توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران | ||
| تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 7، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 20، آبان 1398، صفحه 241-268 اصل مقاله (1.81 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22051/edp.2020.32126.1248 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی مریدیان* 1؛ ناصر یارمحمدیان2؛ فاطمه هواس بیگی3 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد شهری، دانشگاه هنر اصفهان | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد. دانشگاه هنر اصفهان | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه ایلام | ||
| چکیده | ||
| امروزه نقش و اهمیت مصرف انرژی در فرآیند توسعه اقتصادی و نقش بازارهای مالی در رشد اقتصادی با هدایت جریان‌های مالی از بخش-های غیرمولد به مولد ثابت شده است.با توجه به پیچیدگی سیستم‌های اقتصادی در کشورهای مختلف جهان این رابطه ممکن است به‌صورت نامتقارن باشد. با توجه به این‌که در ایران رشد اقتصادی با نوسانات زیادی مواجه بوده است، مطالعه وجود رابطه نامتقارن برای مصرف انرژی و توسعه مالی به‌عنوان دو عامل مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار و رشد اقتصادی می‌تواند به قرار گرفتن اقتصاد ایران در مسیر رشد و توسعه پایدار کمک زیادی کند.مطالعه حاضر رابطه نامتقارن و غیرخطی بین مصرف انرژی، توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی را با تأکید بر سرمایه و نیروی کار برای اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی 1357تا 1395 بررسی می‌کند. برای بررسی همبستگی نامتقارن بین متغیرها،رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شده است. برای بررسی رابطه علی بین متغیرهای مورد بررسی، از آزمون علیت گرنجر غیرخطی رویکرد ناپارامتریک دیکس و پانچنکو، استفاده می‌شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که هم‌انباشتگی نامتقارن بین متغیرها به‌ویژه رشد اقتصادی و مصرف انرژی وجود دارد. نتایج علیت غیرخطی نشان می‌دهد که علیت یک‌طرفه از رشد اقتصادی به مصرف انرژی، سرمایه و نیروی کار وجود دارد، بنابراین اجرای سیاست‌های محافظه‌کارانه مصرف انرژی، استفاده کارا و بهینه از انرژی در بخش‌های تولیدی، هدایت سرمایه به بخش‌های مولد و دارای مزیت صادراتی، اعطای تسهیلات بیشتر به بخش خصوصی و ارائه آموزش‌هایی متناسب با نیازهای بازار کار ایران، نقش زیادی را در قرار گرفتن اقتصاد ایران در مسیر رشد و توسعه پایدار دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| رشد اقتصادی؛ مصرف انرژی؛ رهیافت‌های غیرخطی؛ علیت غیرخطی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating nonparametric causality and asymmetric co-integration between energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Moridian1؛ Naser Yarmohamadian2؛ Fatemeh Havasbeigi3 | ||
| 1MA in Urban Economics, Isfahan University of Arts | ||
| 2Assistant Professor of Economics, Isfahan University of Arts | ||
| 3MA in Energy Economics, Ilam University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Today,the role and importance of energy consumption in the process of economic development and the role of financial markets in economic growth has been proven by guiding financial flows from unproductive to productive sectors.Due to the complexity of economic systems in different countries of the world,this relationship may be asymmetric.Given that economic growth in Iran has fluctuated greatly,the study of the asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and financial development as two factors affecting sustainable development and economic growth can be the path of Iran's economy to growth.And sustainable development will help a lot.The present study examines the asymmetric and nonlinear relationship between energy consumption,financial development and economic growth with emphasis on capital and labor for the Iranian economy during the period1978to2016.To investigate asymmetric correlation between variables,a NARDL self-regression approach has been used.To investigate the causal relationship between the variables under study,Nonlinear Grager Causality Test Diks & Panchenko nonparametric approach is Used.The results show that there is also asymmetric accumulation between variables, especially economic growth and energy consumption. The results of nonlinear causality show that there is a one-sided causality of economic growth to energy consumption, capital and labor, so implement conservative energy consumption policies, efficient and efficient use of energy in manufacturing sectors, direct capital to productive sectors. And having an export advantage, providing more facilities to the private sector and providing training tailored to the needs of the Iranian labor market, plays a major role in placing the Iranian economy on the path of sustainable growth and development. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Economic growth, energy consumption, nonlinear approaches, nonlinear causality | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- اصغرپور، حسن و مهدیلو، علی. (1394). بررسی رابطه علّیت گرنجر بین شاخصهای توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: با استفاده از مدل غیرخطی مارکوف- سوییچینگ خودتوضیح برداری MS-VAR. تحقیقات اقتصادی، 5(4): 806-777. - خلیلی عراقی، منصور؛ فرزینوش، اسدالله و صدری، حامد. (1398). بررسی اثرات متغیر زمانی توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی: مدل TVP-FAVAR. فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، 19(3): 59-31. - سعیدی، خلیل. (1386). نظریهها و قانونمندیهای توسعه، تهران: انتشارات شرکت تعاونی کارآفرینان فرهنگ و هنر، چاپ اول. - سیفیپور، رؤیا. (1389). بررسی تجربی تأثیر سطح توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی. دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار، 2(6): 70-49. - فرازمند، حسن؛ کامرانپور، سعیده و قرباننژاد، مجتبی. (1392). ارتباط بین توسعه مالی، رشد اقتصادی و مصرف انرژی در ایران؛ رویکرد آزمون باند و علیت تودا و یاماموتو. فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری، 10(1): 58-33. - فطرس، محمد حسن؛ آقازاده، اکبر و جبرائیلی، سودا. (1391). بررسی میزان تأثیر مصرف انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه (شامل ایران)، دوره زمانی 2009-1980. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، 9(32): 72-51. - کهنسال، محمدرضا و شایانمهر، سمیرا. (1395). آثار متقابل مصرف انرژی، رشد اقتصادی و آلودگی محیطزیست: کاربرد الگوی معادلات همزمان فضایی دادههای تابلویی. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 5(19): 216-179. - کمیجانی، اکبر و سیفیپور، رؤیا. (1385). بررسی اثرات سرکوب مالی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران. پژوهشهای اقتصادی، 6(3): 48-17. - محمدپور، غلامرضا؛ بخشی دستجردی، رسول؛ جعفری، سمیه و اثنیعشری، هاجر. (1392). بررسی اثر ساختار سنی جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران. تحقیقات اقتصادی، 48(2): 224-201. - مزینی، امیرحسین؛ عصاری آرانی، عباس؛ افشاریان، بهناز و رسولی، احمد. (1394). بازتعریف رابطه مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران (رویکرد بخشی-استانی). فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی، 30: 89-67. - مهرآرا، محسن؛ رضایی برگشادی، صادق و حامدی، سهیلا. (1395). تأثیر مصرف انرژی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران؛ رهیافت بیزی. فصلنامه پژوهشهای سیاستگذاری و برنامهریزی انرژی، 2(۳): 101-61. - هوشمند، محمود؛ دانشنیا، محمد؛ ستوده، علی و قزلباش، اعظم. (1392). بررسی رابطه علیت بین مصرف انرژی، رشد اقتصادی و قیمتها با استفاده از دادههای تابلویی در کشورهای عضو اپک. دو فصلنامه اقتصاد پولی مالی، 20(5): 256-233.
- Apergis, N., & Payne, J.E. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states. Energy Economics,30, 782-789.
- Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O., & Luintel, B. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: The role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33, 16-41.
- Asgharpour, H., & Mahdilo, A. (2015). Investigating the granger causality relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth in Iran: Using the Markov-Switching Nonlinear Model MS-VAR, Economic Research, 5(4), 777-806 (In Persian).
- Aslan, A., Apergis, N., & Yildirim, S. (2014). Causality between energy consumption and GDP in the US: Evidence from a wavelet analysis. Frontiers in Energy,6(1), 1-8.
- Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis,19, 267-283.
- Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 30, 782-789.
- Bencivenga, V.R., & Smith, B.D. (1991). Financial intermediation and endogenous growth. Review of Economic Studies Limited, 58(2), 195-209.
- Brock, W.A., Dechert, W. D., & Scheinkman, J. A. (1987). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. University of Wisconsin Madison, University of Houston, and University of Chicago.
- Charfeddine, L., & Kahia, M. (2019). Impact of renewable energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions and economic growth in the MENA region: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) Analysis. Renewable Energy, 139, 198-213.
- Coers, R., & Sanders, M. (2013). The energy-GDP nexus, addressing an old question with new methods. Energy Economics,36, 708-715.
- Constantini, V., & Martini, C. (2010). The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data. Energy Economics, 32(3), 591-603.
- Demirgüc-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (1996). Stock market, corporate finance and economic growth: An overview. World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 223-39.
- Diks, C., & Panchenko, V. (2006). A new statistic and practical guidelines for Nonparametric Granger Causality Testing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30(9-10), 1647-69.
- Eren, B. M., Taspinar, N., & Gokmenoglu, K. K. (2019). The impact of financial development and economic growth on renewable energy consumption: Empirical analysis of India. Science of the Total Environment, 663, 189-197.
- Farazmand, H., Kamranpour, S., & Ghorbannejad, M. (2013). The relationship between financial development, economic growth and energy consumption in Iran; Toda and Yamamoto Bandwidth and Causality Test Approach. Quantitative Economics Quarterly, 10(1), 33-58 (In Persian).
- Fetros, M. H., Aghazadeh, A., & Jabraili, S. (2012). Investigating the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on the economic growth of selected developing countries (Including Iran): 1980-2009. Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies, 9(32), 51-72 (In Persian).
- Fisher, I. (1933). The Theory of Interest. Macmillan, New York, NY.
- Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1969). The definition of money: Net wealth and neutrality as criteria. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 1-14.
- Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, Yale University Press.
- Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-107.
- Greenwood, J., & Smith, B. (1997). Financial markets in development and the development of financial markets. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 21(1), 145-81.
- Gurley, J. G., & Shaw, E. S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-38.
- Hao, Y., Wang, L-O., & Lee, Ch-Ch. (2018). Financial development, energy consumption and China’s economic growth: New evidence from provincial panel data. International Review of Economics & Finance, in Peress.
- Hoang, T., Lahiani, A., & Heller, D. (2016). Is gold a hedge against inflation? A Nonlinear ARDL analysis. Economic Modelling, 54, 54-66.
- Hooshmand, M., Daneshnia, M., Sotoudeh, A., & Ghezelbash, A. (2013). Investigating the causal relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and prices using panel data in APEC member countries. Bimonthly Monetary and Financial Economics Quarterly, 20(5), 233-256 (In Persian).
- Huang, B., & Hwang, M. (2008). Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach. Ecological Economics, 67(1), 41-54.
- Ismail, N. W., Rahman, H. S. W. A., & Hamid, T. A. T. A. (2015). Does population aging affect economic growth in Malaysia. Prosiding Perkem, 10, 205-210.
- Jensen, M., & Murphy, K. (1990). Performance pay and top management incentives. Journal of Political Economy, 36, 893-898.
- Kahouli, B. (2017). The short and long run causality relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and financial development: Evidence from South Mediterranean Countries (SMCs). Energy Economics, 68, 19-30.
- Kahsai, M. S., Nondo, C., Schaeffer, P. V., & Gerbremedhin, T. G. (2012). Income level and the energy consumption-GDP nexus: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Economics,34(3), 739-746.
- Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization un new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling,44, 97-103.
- Khalili Iraqi, M., Farzinvash, A., & Sadri, H. (2019). Investigating the effects of temporal variability of financial development on economic growth: TVP-FAVAR model. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 19(3), 31-59 (In Persian).
- Khan, SH., Peng, Zh., & Li, Y. (2019). Energy consumption, environmental degradation, economic growth and financial development in globe: Dynamic simultaneous equations panel analysis. Energy Reports,5, 1089-1102.
- Kohansal, M. R., & Shayanehmehr, S. (2016). Interactions between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution: Application of the model of Simultaneous Spatial Equations of Panel Data, Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 5(19), 179-216 (In Persian).
- Komijani, A., & Seifipour, R. (2006). Investigating the effects of financial suppression on economic growth in Iran. Economic Research, 6(3), 17-48 (In Persian).
- Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3, 401-403.
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root. Journal of Econometrics,54(1-3), 159-178.
- Levine, R. (1991). Stock market, growth, and tax policy. Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1445-65.
- Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726.
- Maki, D. (2012). Tests for Cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Econ. Modell. 29 (5), 2011–2015. - McKinnon, RI. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. The Brookings Institution: Washington, DC.
- Mehrara, M., Rezaei Bargshadi, S., & Hamedi, S. (2015). The impact of energy consumption on Iran's economic growth; Bayesian approach. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 2(3), 61-101 (In Persian).
- Mohammadpour, Gh. R., Bakhshi Dastjerdi, R., Jafari, S., & Asnai Ashri, H. (2013). Investigating the effect of population age structure on economic growth in Iran. Economic Research, 48(2), 201-224 (In Persian).
- Mozini, A. H., Asari Arani, A., Afsharian, B., & Rasouli, A. (2015). Redefining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran (Sectoral-provincial approach). Economic Modeling Quarterly, 30, 67-89 (In Persian).
- Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Popp, S. (2010). A note on the long-run elasticities from the energy consumption-GDP relationship. Applied Energy, 87(3), 1054-57. - Ouedraogo, N. S. (2013). Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the economic community of west African states (ECOWAS). Energy Economics,36, 637-647.
- Ouyang, Y., & Li, P. (2018). On the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption in China: New perspective from a GMM Persian VAR approach. Energy Economics, 71, 238-252.
- Ozturk, I., Aslan, A., & Kalyoncu, H. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from a panel data for low and middle income Countries. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4422-28.
- Pagano, M. (1993). Financial markets and growth: An overview. European Economic Review, 37(2/3), 613-22.
- Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16, 289-326.
- Pradhan, P. R., Arvin, M. B., Nair, M., Bennett, S. E., & Hall, J. H. (2018). The dynamics between energy consumption patterns, financial sector development and economic growth in Financial Action Task Force (FATF) countries. Energy, 159, 42-53.
- Prasad Bist, J. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a Persian of 16 African and non-African low-income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, ISSN: (Print) 2332-2039 (Online).
- Rousseau, P. L., & Wachhtel, P. (2000). Equity markets and growth: Cross country evidence on timing and outcomes. Journal of Banking and Finance, 24(12), 613-22.
- Sadorsky, P. (2010). The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies. Energy Policy,38, 2528-35.
- Saeedi, Kh. (2007). Theories and Regularities of Development. Tehran: Entrepreneurs of Culture and Art Cooperative Publications, first edition (In Persian).
- Sahoo, P., & Dash, R. K. (2009). Infrastructure development and economic growth in India. Journal of the Asian Pacific Economy,14(4), 351-365.
- Sahoo, P., Dash, R. K., & Nataraj, G. (2010). Infrastructure development and economic growth in China. Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) Discussion Paper, No. 261.
- Saint-Paul, G. (1992). Technological choice, financial markets and economic development. European Economic Review, 36(4), 763-81.
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development; An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle. Translated by R. Opie, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, p. 1934.
- Seifipur, R. (2010). Experimental study of the impact of financial development level on economic growth. Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 2(6), 49-70 (In Persian).
- Shahbaz, M., Khan, S., & Tahir, M. I. (2013). The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis. Energy Economics, 40, 8-21.
- Shahbaz, M., Van Hoang, T. H., Kumar Mahalik, M., & Roubaud, D. (2017). Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics, 63, 199-212.
- Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in an ARDL Framework. In: Horrace, W.C., Sickles, R.C., (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer Science and Business Media, New York.
- Smiech, S., & Papiez, M. (2014). Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach. Energy Policy,71, 118-129.
- Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth: The experience of African countries revisited. Energy Economics,31, 217-224. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,223 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 453 |
||